By:- Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Gold and silver remained under pressure today, weighed down by a hawkish macro repricing increasingly traced to the US‑Iran conflict. Spot gold traded near $4,570 per ounce, around 4% below its recent high of $4,773, while silver tumbled roughly 6% to $78, about 13% off its recent $89.30 peak, as hotter‑than‑expected inflation data and a firmer dollar stripped momentum from both metals.The catalyst was a bruising week of US price data: consumer inflation rose to 3.8% in April, the highest since May 2023, while wholesale prices accelerated at their fastest pace since 2022, both prints driven substantially by energy costs flowing from Hormuz supply disruptions.Markets have now priced out Fed rate cuts entirely, assigning instead a one‑in‑three probability of a hike by December. It is the rate and dollar implications of that inflation, not the inflation itself, that the market is trading, with higher real yields and a stronger dollar capping the non‑yielding metal’s upside. India’s decision to raise import tariffs on gold and silver from 6% to 15% added a further demand headwind, threatening to curtail one of the market’s most reliable physical‑buying cushions. Traders now await clearer outcomes from the ongoing US‑China talks. Both leaders described the summit in emphatic terms, however markets took a more measured view.Diplomatic language has not yet translated into a ceasefire breakthrough, and until Hormuz flows normalise, the inflationary overhang on precious metals is unlikely to lift materially.

Crude oil prices gained steam on Friday, with Brent climbing to $108 per barrel and WTI trading near $103, headed for weekly gains of more than 6%, fueled by deepening concerns over supply disruptions linked to the ongoing US‑Iran conflict. The Strait of Hormuz remains the key flashpoint, with only limited tanker movement continuing through the region and traders increasingly treating the waterway as effectively shut. Attacks on vessels, seizures near the strait, and the continued US naval blockade around Iranian ports have reinforced fears that global energy supply chains remain highly vulnerable. The tightening supply backdrop has kept the geopolitical risk premium elevated, with the IEA warning that the oil market could remain severely undersupplied through October even if tensions ease in the coming months. Global crude and fuel flows through Hormuz have already dropped sharply, while rapidly declining inventories continue to support bullish sentiment across energy markets. Meanwhile, the latest outlooks from OPEC, the IEA, and the EIA highlighted growing uncertainty around the 2026 oil‑market balance. OPEC trimmed its 2026 demand‑growth forecast amid higher prices and geopolitical disruptions, while the IEA warned of structurally tight supply conditions and the EIA maintained that inventories could eventually rebuild once Strait‑of‑Hormuz disruptions ease. The Trump-Xi summit injected cautious optimism without resolving the underlying impasse. Both sides described talks as constructive, but Beijing’s measured readout and the continued absence of a durable Iran framework left markets unmoved. Without a credible de-escalation path and more reliable tanker flows, crude prices are likely to remain skewed to the upside.